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Is Humanity under attack from AI?, By Rajiv Gupta, 26 November 2023 Print E-mail

Spotlight

New Delhi, 26 November 2023

Is Humanity under attack from AI?

By Rajiv Gupta 

If you are not inundated with articles on Artificial Intelligence (AI), you have probably been living under a rock. Several of these articles raise images of a dystopian future based on machines taking over mankind. If you are sufficiently apprehensive about the future awaiting mankind, let me try to offer my analysis of what AI is and is not, and how it might shape our world in the foreseeable future. 

AI is not a recent phenomenon, although it has assumed greater currency of late in terms of specific hardware and software such as ChatGPT. The term was first coined in 1956 by John McCarthy, a computer scientist at Stanford University. He defined it as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines.” Since then, several scientists and engineers have worked in this area and we have seen many periods of hectic activity as well as dry spells due to lack of funding for research. 

The other term I wish to briefly introduce is the Turing test, named after Alan Turing, who postulated that if a machine can engage in a conversation with a human without being detected as a machine, it has demonstrated human intelligence. The development of devices like Alexa and software such as ChatGPT are probably a result of researchers trying to meet the criteria for the Turing test. 

First, a little understanding of AI is in order. AI, in its current avatar, is nothing more than sophisticated pattern recognition. The programs look for patterns in consumer behaviour, in speech, in text, in photographs, in medical diagnostic scans, etc. The software is “trained” to recognise patterns using a very large database of words, pictures, numbers, and scans. For example, if a customer tends to purchase certain products from a retail outlet on a regular basis, AI will be able to detect this purchasing pattern and the customer can be sent customize mailings/ads that match his/her preferences. When it comes to facial recognition, the picture is divided into a number of dots or pixels. The software analyses the pixels to determine patterns which give information about facial features. Then the software would compare the pattern it has been trained on with the pattern on a photograph to determine if the two photographs are of the same individual. 

The accuracy, or correctness of the answers developed by AI is dependent on the data used to train it. Training is done by feeding a large amount of data into the software, then letting the software answer the question that is being asked. By providing human feedback regarding the accuracy of the answer, the software gets “trained” so that it can improve its ability to decipher the pattern on its next attempt. There is ample evidence of AI making mistakes due to gaps and shortcomings in the data used in the training. These mistakes have occurred in facial recognition in the US where the program has incorrectly identified an individual as a suspect in a crime not committed by him/her. There are several examples of AI programs showing clear bias based on race, gender, age, etc. when the database used to train the software has been deficient or biased. 

Irrespective of the sophistication of the software, none of them are 100 % reliable. Some people may say that neither are humans. There are two major dangers in letting a software make decisions. First, most AI software is like a black box. It is not possible to question the logic used by the program. This does not allow us to have an audit trail. Second, people place very great faith in output from software and do not question it, assuming that computers cannot make mistakes like humans. But as I have mentioned, there have been several instances where AI has made an error. It would be incorrect to completely hand over the responsibility of an entire human task to a computer program, especially when we are not sure of the reliability of the program. If the error results in a wrong conviction of a person, the consequences are huge from a human perspective. 

What we can, and probably should do, is to automate the repetitive component of the human task. This would free the human to add greater value by providing inputs that computers cannot. A good example of this is the use of auto pilot in airplanes. The longest, and the most boring part of flying an aircraft is when it is flying at its cruising altitude. It is the take-off and landing that requires the expertise of a human pilot. Therefore, a plane can be put on auto pilot at cruising altitude as constant attention by the pilot is not needed. But we do not eliminate the pilot. We let the auto pilot relieve the stress in a long-haul flight. The pilot can override the auto pilot if the situation demands it. 

Any technological development has led to reduction in human labour. Whether it was the steam engine, the tractor, the automobile, or even the computer. Each innovation has resulted in the elimination of the drudgery of repetitive human tasks, whether physical, or mental. In 1870, agricultural workers comprised half of all workers in the US; in 1900, about one-third of all workers; and in 1950, less than a fifth of all workers. Today the number of agricultural workers is around one percent of all workers. The reason for this reduction is an increase in mechanisation and farm sizes over this period. 

The question that ought to be asked is not whether technology displaced people; it certainly did. Rather we should be asking whether people would like to do the work being done by machines today for what consumers would be willing to pay for it. The answer, arguably, would be a no.Similar scenarios have been observed in non-physical work situations such as calculating, accounting, etc. where computers have effectively replaced humans, and rightly so. How many people today would enjoy adding numbers all day long? 

There are several human jobs that are ripe for automation. One of the most denigrating and dangerous jobs in India is that of manual scavenging. Would an AI powered solution not be a great way to eliminate the risk of death that manual scavengers face today. There can be many other such jobs which should not be done by humans. The rule that Japanese companies, such as Toyota, use is if a task is dirty, difficult, or dangerous, it is a good candidate for automation. To this list we can also add boring and repetitive, with no value added. 

In conclusion, I feel that both the hype and the fear attributed to AI is overdone. If the test of AI is that it should be able to mimic a human, we need to remember that humans can make mistakes and computers cannot. At the same time humans can find an opportunity in failure or mistake, such as the discovery of penicillin. A computer cannot do that because it has to be told what to look for. Ultimately, humans decide what AI should be used for, not the other way around. Let us do this judiciously.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Rajasthan Polling: END TO BITTER CAMPIAGNING, By Insaf, 25 November 2023 Print E-mail

 

Round The States 

 

New Delhi, 25 November 2023

Rajasthan Polling

END TO BITTER CAMPIAGNING

By Insaf 

Rajasthan goes to the polls today. The campaigning has been rough and tough and while pollsters would give thumbs up to ruling Congress, the State appears to be in a neck-to-neck contest between grand old party and BJP. Gehlot government has gone all to woo the voters with welfare schemes and the party’s 7 guarantees, including Rs 10,000 per year to female head of family, cow dung at Rs 2 kg, free laptops and tablets to first-year government college students, et al. The BJP too follows in similar footsteps but its guarantees centre around Prime Minister Modi. Besides, its Hindutva strategy is given sharp focus, as its star campaigner started his campaign from a Hanuman temple. The bitter campaigning has got the Election Commission stepping in. On Thursday last, it issued a show-cause notice to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his panauti, ‘pickpocket’ and ‘loan waiver for the super-rich’ jibes at Modi, saying the MCC prohibits leaders from making ‘unverified allegations against political rivals.’ Additionally, its issued two show-cause notices to Congress over two advertisements -- one claiming a wave in its favour and another asking people to give missed calls to avail benefits of its poll promises. These ‘fail to adhere to the standards expected from a national party’, is the BJP’s complaint. The Congress may cry hoarse or see it as its rival truly worried, but the results will show which guarantees eventually worked.   

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Governors ‘Playing With Fire’

Governors need to tread cautiously; they are only titular heads and real power rests with people’s representatives. The firm message comes from the country’s top court. In a 27-page judgement uploaded on Thursday last, the Supreme Court asked Punjab Governor Banwarilal Purohit to ‘now proceed to take a decision on the Bills’ submitted for assent during Assembly’s sittings on 19, 20 June 2023 and 20 October 2023, as these were ‘constitutionally valid’. Earlier, during course of hearing, the court had said the governor was “playing with fire” as it held that being the titular head of the state the Governor can’t cast doubt on the validity of an assembly session or withhold his decision indefinitely on bills passed by the House. Any such attempt, it said ‘would be replete with grave perils to democracy.’ In a Parliamentary form of democracy, the real power vests with MLAs and MPs and “Members of government are accountable to and subject to scrutiny by the legislature. The Governor as President’s appointee is the titular head of State.” Importantly, the Speaker is recognised to be a guardian of the House privileges and constitutionally recognised authority who represents the House; the Governor, as an unelected Head of State, is entrusted with certain constitutional powers. “However, this power can’t be used to thwart the normal course of lawmaking by state legislatures.” Big not just for AAP government, but other State governments which have been in a running battle with their respective Raj Bhavan. Remember the idiom-- discretion is the better part of valour.

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Set Up Delimitation Commission

Disproportionate representation of tribal communities in Sikkim and West Bengal assemblies should go a long way to get sections of SCs and STs justice across the country. Hearing a petition of NGO, Public Interest Committee for Scheduling Specific Areas, contending the Limbu and Tamang communities (STs), were denied a proportionate representation in these States, the Supreme Court on Thursday last, directed Centre to set up a fresh delimitation commission for ensuring a proportional representation of the communities specified as SCs and STs, as mandated under Constitution. However, it clarified it can’t direct Parliament to amend or make laws for giving proper representation to other communities that form part of the STs as this would amount to “venturing into legislative domain”. Additional seats, it said must be made available in Bengal for the STs to accommodate ‘principle of proportional representation.” The plea claimed Limbu and Tamang communities’ population in Sikkim had risen to 33.8% in 2011 from 20.6% in 2001 and in Darjeeling, West Bengal, ST population rose to 21.5% in 2011 from 12.69% in 2001. Importantly, the court was clear its verdict ‘shall not be read to interfere’ with Parliament or assemblies’ polls ‘since elections are an overarching mandate and these have to be carried out on time’. All that can be said is that once the process starts, ‘benefit (of reservation) has to be given across the country,’ as demands from various states pending. So, while the exercise must be on the agenda, a deadline is missing!

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Adamant Bihar

Bihar is pulling out all the stops to get what has been demanding. On Wednesday last, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar upped the ante on the long-standing demand for grant of special status to the state by getting the Cabinet to pass such a resolution. In a post he said the Centre has been requested for the same as it ‘was necessitated by findings of the caste survey his government carried out.’ Importantly, while the rise in percentage of population of the deprived castes has led to increase in the quotas for SCs, STs and OBCs from 50 to 65%, he said his government planned to undertake several welfare measures for the benefit of “94 lakh families”, which lived in abject poverty.  Recall, the demand for special status has been pending “since 2010”.  At same time, he has urged the Centre to incorporate the hiked reservation for deprived castes from 50 to 65% in state government jobs and educational institutions in Constitution’s 9th Schedule, so it’s guaranteed immunity from legal scrutiny. Nitish has also been saying that if INDIA bloc forms the next government at the Centre, he would press for “special status to all backward states”. Clearly, there’s more than meets the eye.

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Support For Palestine

God’s own country may bring some cheer to the war-ravaged Palestinians. A mass solidarity rally was organised by the Congress PCC in Kozhikode on Thursday last, to clear the air: “Palestine solidarity is not a new thing for the Congress Party. It has been continuing without any change since Gandhiji and Nehru’s time.” Both AICC General Secretary KC Venugopal and CWC member Shashi Tharoor were at pains to counter accusations that the grand old party was silent on the issue due to ongoing Assembly polls and asserted it condemned Israel’s war on Gaza, its attacks against hospitals and refugee camps; and hit out at Modi government’s foreign policy, saying India’s abstention from voting in UNGA against the war, ‘brought disgrace to the entire nation’. Venugopal even described Modi and his Israel counterpart Netanyahu as ‘the same type’ and accused the Centre of using foreign policy as ‘a PR exercise to ensure its victory in polls.’ Sadly, the humanitarian side of the war has got lost in vote bank politics. Domestic issues are being seen to influence South Block’s pro-Israel shift as it gives a shot in the arm to the Hindu nationalists. People taking out pro-Palestine rallies in some State have been briefly detained by the police; the Indian media too has titled reportage. Guess, Kerala gives some solace.

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Farewell ‘Judged’

A farewell speech in Allahabad High Court has not just raised many an eyebrow but could ruffle feathers. On Tuesday last, its retiring Chief Justice Pritinker Diwaker in his farewell speech alleged his transfer in 2018 from Chhattisgarh HC when the collegium was headed by then CJI Dipak Misra was done to ‘have been issued with an ill intention to harass me’! He said when he was elevated to the bench on March 31, 2009, he discharged his duties till October 2018 “to the satisfaction of one and all, and particularly to my own inner being.” But “now, a sudden turn of events descended upon me when then CJI Deepak Misra showered on me some extra affection for reasons still not known to me which entailed my transfer to Allahabad HC, on October 3, 2018.” However, ‘as fortune would have it,’ he said ‘the bane turned into a boon…’ Besides, he thanked present CJI Chandrachud, ‘who rectified the injustice done to me,’ and for being appointed as Acting CJ of Allahabad HC and eventually CJ on March 26, 2023. Interestingly, his remarks come on the heels of a farewell speech by Justice Bibek Chaudhuri, recently transferred from Calcutta HC to Patna HC. He said: “I must say that in 1975 during Emergency, 16 judges of different HCs were transferred by an executive decision in one go. After almost 48 years, 24 judges have been transferred from one High Court to another by the Collegium of the Honourable Supreme Court in one go.” The big question being whether these churnings or targeting with the judiciary should be welcomed or not?----INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)


 

India-Australia Ties: THE 2+2 DIALOGUE, By Dr. D.K. Giri, 27 November 2023 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 24 November 2023

India-Australia Ties

THE 2+2 DIALOGUE

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

India and Australia are rivals in cricket as two top teams in the world. They have clashed many times including in World Cup finals. After winning all the ten league matches, India unexpectedly, disappointingly lost to Australia in Sunday’s World Cup final. Even Prime Minister Modi was actively involved in the match, first as a spectator, then after the match, to commiserate the Indian team. However, that is cricket. Although, Indians are passionate about cricket, and a vast number tend to be emotional, each game should be taken sportingly, displaying magnanimity in victory and equanimity in defeat.  

On the other hand, the India-Australia bilateral engagement is currently at an all-time high encompassing defence, security, trade and cultural partnerships, technology and education as the key areas of collaboration. The Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, the Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles arrived in India early last week for the second 2+2 ministerial dialogue. As usual, the dialogues covered a wide range of issues including India-Canada relations which are undergoing some stress due to the rise of radicalism in Canada that is directed against India, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. 

The close proximity between Australia and Canada necessitated a discussion on India-Canada relations and possibility of defusing the tension. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar underlined the need for such a discussion on Canada, “Australia has a good and strong relationship with both India and Canada. Hence it was important that Australia get our perspective on the issue”. He further pointed out that, “From our point of view, the key issue is really the space which is being given to extremism and radicalism in Canada.” 

Let us recall that the tensions between New Delhi and Canberra became worse with the controversial killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Canadian Prime Minister accused the Indian intelligence agencies of being behind the killing. Diplomatic staff from either side was repatriated. Australia was reportedly upset with New Delhi sending back 41 Canadian diplomats. However, sadly another terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, in a video appearance, has given a call to Sikhs to boycott Air India and has threatened the disruption of Air India flying across the world. Government of India has booked Pannun under several Acts of intimidation, prevention of unlawful acts etc. Presumably, the air was cleared between India and Australian leadership. 

From the available reports and the press briefings, it appeared that Australians have been sensitised on issues of terrorism which are of central concern to New Delhi. The Ministry of External Affairs said in a press brief, “We had extensive discussion on security issues. We spoke about terrorism, radicalism and extremism. At the heart of it, is really a shared commitment to a free, open, inclusive, prosperous, and rule-based Indo-Pacific region.” 

The similar Indian approach echoed in their response to Israel-Hamas war. The Indian position consisted of her response to three issues in the present war – one is terrorism, second, the hostage issue and the third, humanitarian crisis in Palestine. Both countries agreed that it is a very complex and challenging situation which cannot be addressed by a single issue response like condemning Israel or calling for unilateral ceasefire. 

It is pertinent to note the driving factors that bring Australia and India closer. India’s strong ties with the US since the Indo-US Civil Agreement signed in 2008 helped Australia, as an ally of United States to embrace India. Second, China’s border clashes with India and trade disputes with Australia bring them together. China, in fact, as a common threat to both India and Australia works as a catalyst in their bilateralism. The Australian Deputy Prime Minister in the 2+2 dialogue confirmed that, “China is the biggest security anxiety for India and Australia”. His counterpart, the Indian Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, endorsed it, “Strong India-Australia ties are crucial for peace, security and prosperity of the India Pacific”.  Indeed, India-Australia bilateralism is sustained by a mutual interest in containing China and ensuring a stable order in India Pacific region. 

Third, the domestic constituents in both countries like civil society actors, think tanks and research organisations have advocated a closer relationship between the two countries. Fourth, the mutual economic and trade interests have also driven the partnership. Australia hopes to enhance its partnership with India in order to cut down on its reliance on China. The Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese came with 25 Australian business leaders to expand trade when he came for attending the G-20 meeting last September. Likewise, New Delhi wants to tap into Australia’s rich mineral resources and investment potentials. 

The bilateralism is conducted through several agreements, membership of multilateral coalitions and bilateral visits by top leadership. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Australia in September 2014 was the first by any Indian Prime Minister in 28 years. Following this visit, a Framework of Security Cooperation paved the way for future engagements. In 2020, India and Australia announced a comprehensive strategic partnership that includes an agreement on maritime and cyber technology cooperation and Mutual Logistics Support Agreement to increase military inter-operability through defence exercises and further cooperation on defence, science and technology. 

In November 2022, both countries signed the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) in an effort to strengthen trade ties. Beyond bilateralism, Australia and India are involved in a range of multilateral mechanisms and regional groupings that include G-20, the Indian Ocean Rim Association, the ASEAN Regional Forum and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). Such agreements and cooperation have led to joint defence drills which are the main pillar of India-Australia bilateralism. 

Australia invited India to participate in Talisman Sabre, the most important military exercise between the US and Australia. Similar exercises between Australia and India include AusIndex, Kakadu, Pitch Black, and Milan. The Malabar Naval exercises where Australia has recently joined, is another frontline Naval exercise. In 2022, the joint army exercise Austra-Hind took place. 

To sum up, despite growing proximity between India and Australia, there are a few challenges to reckon with. Obviously, the bilateralism is shaped by their ‘shared interest’ and ‘shared values’. The shared interest is apparent, which is balancing China, the common threat. Second is the mutual benefit accruing from growing trade and economic partnership. There are concerns, however, on shared values. For instance, India’s refusal to condemn Russian aggression of Ukraine caused unease in Australia. 

Both countries got their independence from Britain. India chose to be non-aligned whereas Australia became an ally of the United States. While both have close defence partnership and are members of Quad, other members including Australia accommodate India’s strategic autonomy. Observers of India-Australia relations wonder what would be India’s position on Taiwan, if ever it was invaded by China. Any military confrontation like the one on Taiwan could have disastrous consequences in terms of security and economy in India-Pacific. Will India’s strategic autonomy sit well with such a destabilising possibility? 

For now, Australia seems to go along well with the Indian approach to multilateral partnerships. Also, the multi-stake holder approach favoured by both sides in building their bilateralism gives a cause for optimism. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Poll Has Thrown Up Basic Issues, by Inder Jit, 23 November 2023 Print E-mail

REWIND

New Delhi, 23 November 2023

Poll Has Thrown Up Basic Issues

By Inder Jit

(Released on 5 March 1985) 

Several issues of basic importance to the future of our polity have come up in the course of the poll battle for the State Assemblies. What kind of a Union is India -- federal or unitary? Opinion over the past two decades and more has been divided. There are many who feel that India, which is a Union of States, essentially a federal polity. However, there are others who feel that India is not quite a federation of states in the true or classical sense of the term. Instead, it is a mixture of both and is some kind of a federal-cum-unitary state. The confusion, perhaps, arises because of the background and circumstances in which the Union of India came into being. In the case of the United States of America, for instance, independent states decided to come together even as they retained a measure of their independence or autonomy. In sharp contrast, India at the time of independence was ruled by the British from New Delhi as a unitary state. And, Princely India was under its paramountcy.

True, British India was divided into provinces. Each province had its own Government headed by a Prime Minister, as the heads of provincial governments were then called. But the arrangement was for administrative convenience. Absolute power vested in the Raj at New Delhi. Following independence, the unitary polity was divided into States. The Centre retained many of the powers of the Raj and gave the States a measure of genuine autonomy. In other words, the unitary Centre voluntarily shed some of its powers and shared these with the States and not vice versa as in the case of the United States of America. Consequently, the past two decades have seen stresses and strains grow and develop between the Centre and the States. As a student of history, Nehru strongly believed that India’s real strength lay in its rich diversity and, therefore, worked for a healthy federal polity. This, he believed, would ensure for India richness which could not possibly come from uniformity imposed from New Delhi.

Nehru was also clear that a federal, decentralised polity with a strong Centre would ensure speedy and balanced growth. In fact, he set up the Planning Commission to provide not only planned development for the nation as a whole but also for planned development at the State level through a federal de centralised set up on the economic plane. The Planning Commission was made autonomous and virtually independent so that it could plan for India’s development uninfluenced and unencumbered by the Government at the Centre and its political complexion. Sir V.T. Krishnamachari was named the Commission’s Deputy Chairman and Nehru as Prime Minister its first Chairman. De facto, however, 'VT’ headed the Commission and Nehru was Chairman only to provide a link between the planning body and the Government -- and to answer questions on planning in the two Houses of Parliament. But the situation changed following elevation of Indira Gandhi to Prime Ministership.

Slowly but surely, the autonomy of the Planning Commission was eroded bit by bit and the country, in effect, sought to be run as a unitary state through both constitutional and extra-constitutional devices. (Remember, the role which Governors are now expected to play!) The final denouement came when the Commission, originally conceived as a body of independent experts, was virtually reduced to the position of a Government department and the Planning Minister appointed its de facto head and named its Vice Chairman. Simultaneously, the National Development Council, headed by the Prime Minister, came to be transformed into a brazen instrument of the Centre from its original concept of a body designed to fashion a national view on planning and economic development at the political level and ensure unity in diversity. Fortunately, Mr Rajiv Gandhi has sought to restore to the Planning Commission its original autonomy. Dr Manmohan Singh, one of India’s eminent economists, has been appointed its Vice Chairman and the States assured a fair deal. But other issues have arisen in the meantime.

The Prime Minister has now taken the stand that the same party should be in power at the Centre and in the States in the interest of speedy and coordinated development. Initially, Mr Gandhi denied Press reports that he had advocated one-party rule at the Centre and in the States. However, the Congress-I manifesto for the Assembly poll has taken the same stand. It reminds the voters that Parliament and the State legislatures are creatures of the same Constitution and adds: “There is a clear linkage between the Central and State Governments in the formulation and implementation of development plans and programmes.”Undoubtedly, there is a linkage between the Centre and the States. Equally, development is likely to be more coordinated and smoother if the same party is in power at New Delhi and in the States. But the stand taken by the Prime Minister and his party goes against the letter and spirit of the Constitution -- as also the background.

There was nothing wrong in Mr Gandhi appealing to the voters to elect Congress-I to power in each State that he visited in the course of his poll campaign. But to many veteran observers of the national scene he appears to have slipped up in linking the Centre and the States as a whole and pleading for one-party rule in the country. What he has stated amounts to holding the voters for the Assembly poll to ransom with the virtual threat: “Vote for a Congress-I Government in your State or else...” Shorn of polite verbiage, this amounts to giving notice that the States which vote for the Congress-I are likely to get better or more favoured treatment than the others. No wonder, therefore, that the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh and the leader of the Telugu Desam Party, Mr N.T. Rama Rao, reacted sharply and not only demanded “legitimate allotment” of funds to the State from the Centre towards welfare programmes but also gave a counter-threat. He said at one poll meeting that there would be “bloodshed and great revolution” if due share of funds was not allotted to the State. He further added: “We are not beggars to ask for charity or alms. We are entitled to legitimate and due shares from the Centre.”

Centre-State relations have burst into the open once again, as they did last July. Four Chief Ministers then walked out of the meeting of the National Development Council in an unprecedented protest. They were: Mr N.T. Rama Rao of Andhra Pradesh, Mr R.K, Hegde, Karnataka, Mr Jyoti Basu, West Bengal and Mr Nripen Chakraborty of Tripura. They left the NDC meeting to protest against Dr Farooq Abdullah’s “anti-democratic and authoritarian dismissal”. Opinion was then sharply divided on what came to pass. Mrs Gandhi and her Congress-I colleagues were strongly of the view that it was wholly improper for the Chief Ministers to have made “a political statement” at the NDC forum. The four Chief Ministers were equally clear that the statement was perfectly in order. As Mr Hegde later pointed out: The Chief Ministers are political beings. What is more, Chief Ministers beginning with EMS of Kerala from Nehru’s time have made political statements at the NDC meetings. There has been never any bar against making them.

Impartially and candidly, both sides had a point. Mrs Gandhi was partly correct when she said that the National Development Council was only a forum for planning and national development and was not concerned with politics. However, Mr Rama Rao, Mr Hegde, Mr Basu and Mr Chakraborty had greater force --- and justice --- on their side. First, politics cannot be separated from planning in any federal polity as Mrs Gandhi knew only too well. Times out of number, she herself stated that national development was dependent upon close co-operation between the Centre and the States. This had inevitably led the NDC to a discussion on Centre-State relations and in the last case on the question of New Delhi’s virtual coup in Srinagar --- and the credentials and legitimacy of the successor State Government. Second, where else could the Chief Ministers have raised the Kashmir question in the absence of political forum? Nehru recognized this fact of life and did not, therefore, object when EMS first and Annadurai subsequently made political speeches at the NDC.

Significantly, the founding fathers of the Constitution recognised the need for a national political forum and wisely provided for one in the shape of an Inter-State Council. Alas, few remember that the establishment of an Inter-State Council was recommended in 1967 by a top-level Study Team headed by Mr M.C. Setalvad, one of free India’s top constitutional experts. The team, which submitted its report to the Administrative Reforms Commission, included among its members Mr M. Bhaktavatsalam, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and Mr Hitendra Desai, Chief Minister of Gujarat, was clear that the Inter-State Council should take care of all issues of national importance in which the States were interested. Indeed, Mr Setalvad, who as India’s first Attorney General was invited by Nehru to address Parliament on certain crucial matters, went one step further. He wanted the Inter-State Council to replace the National Development Council, the Chief Ministers’ Conference, the Finance Ministers’ Conference, the Food Ministers’ Conference and the National Integration Council.

The Sarkaria Commission is, no doubt, going into Centre-State relations. However, certain things need to be done without delay. One such thing is the need to ensure genuine functional autonomy of the Planning Commission. The appointment of Dr Manmohan Singh as its Vice Chairman is to be welcomed. But this by itself is not enough. Much more needs to be done to make the Planning Commission a truly autonomous body functioning as experts in the best national interest. Unknown to most people, the Planning Commission has no statutory base or authority. It was created through a Government resolution and its Vice Chairman and Members hold office at the pleasure of the Government. Originally, the term of the Vice Chairman and members was five years. Today, however, their position is as insecure as that of the Governors. The Planning Commission should be made a statutory body. What is more, it is time for the President to set up an Inter-State Council which could perhaps be given a better all-embracing name such as: National Affairs Council. Every effort must be made to find a solution to the basic issues raised by the poll. No scope should be left for any tension if India is to function as a happy and healthy Union of States. --- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Raising Work Productivity: MORE HOURS NOT AN ANSWER, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 22 November 2023 Print E-mail

Open Forum

New Delhi, 22 November 2023

Raising Work Productivity

MORE HOURS NOT AN ANSWER 

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Increasing workers’ productivity is an issue which has come into sharp focus following a recent podcast of legendary co-founder of tech giant Infosys NR Narayana Murthy, wherein he requested youngsters to work for ‘70 hours a week’. India’s work productivity, he said “is one of the lowest in the world. Unless we improve our work productivity... we will not be able to compete with those countries that have made tremendous progress.” So, he added the “youngsters must say ‘This is my country. I’d like to work 70 hours a week”. 

Undeniably, labour productivity in India is quite low compared to many countries, even in the emerging economies. Thus, there is need to raise productivity, as efficiency increase is the order of the day, and must be ensured to make India competitive in the global market. 

However, the question arises whether this would be possible through more efficiency, which could be brought about by use of technology and/or better planning etc. or through extending a longer work week. The latter option is not evident in most other countries and therefore may not be acceptable. Moreover, working more hours per week does not necessarily improve work culture and standards. 

While urging the need for increasing productivity, the prevailing situation in the country, not just in the modern industrial sector but also in the traditional industrial sector in both big and medium industries needs to be considered. A section of analysts has been harping more on the induction of technology than in longer working hours. However, it may be mentioned here that in the unregulated informal sector, the working hours are around 70 hours a week. 

Some feel that Murthy’s thesis is not quite correct as productivity is not necessarily linked to how many hours people work. Indians already work longer hours than most. The Indian government’s time-use survey in 2019 found that men between the ages of 15 and 59 in urban India spent an average of 521 minutes a day in paid employment. That translates to over 60 hours a week. The number is even higher if you exclude those with only primary education. Indians, according to an ILO report, already work long hours ‘worked an average of more than 2,000 hours every year before the pandemic, much higher than the US, Brazil and Germany.’ 

Murthy pinpointed India’s underwhelming work productivity, ranking among the lowest in the world, which is possibly not the fact. The case of China, which is well known for high levels of efficiency and skill, needs to be studied. The China Labour-Force Dynamics Survey in 2017 revealed that the average employee in the People’s Republic spent just under 45 hours at work, though more than 40 percent reported that they were working over 50 hours a week. 

There are, however, some sectors in that country where the working hours are around 60-62 hours a week. But China’s progress and prosperity has been not because of long hours of work but due to high technological prowess. During the pandemic, work was being done from home but at least one survey found that Indians – may be also the Chinese -- had to put in more unpaid overtime. 

Murthy’s comparison with Germany also does not appear convincing. Though Germany’s workers in the 1950s certainly worked longer hours than, say, the British, the total was still probably between 45 and 50 hours a week though presently it’s not more than 50 hours a week. However, presently South Koreans have longer working hours, which may be around 60 hours a week. 

These comparisons are aimed at highlighting the fact that working longer hours need not necessarily boost productivity. Though Murthy has not referred to the government sector, where it is generally believed that productivity is low, the main reason that can be attributed for this is the lack of proper advance planning. But even then, one can say that even without corporate level efficiency, government hospitals have the best doctors and best treatment is received in these places. Obviously, this is because of high levels of skill and efficiency. 

Recall that more than a decade ago, Ratan Tata had complained to The Times, London that the management of the British steel company (Corus) and automaker (Jaguar Land Rover) he had taken over didn’t work hard enough. They wouldn’t stay for meetings that lasted past 5 p.m.; offices emptied early on Friday. Tata Steel’s hard-edged management, he implied, would soon set that right. India Inc.’s luminaries lined up to drape themselves in the flag and endorse their fellow billionaire. 

The five-day week culture may not be ideal for a developing nation like India, but factories operate for six days a week and most private sector companies also follow the same principle. It is necessary to mention here that if corporate India wants workers to work longer hours, it will need to create high productivity jobs for them. It is here that there is need to understand the nature of employment of India’s workforce and whether such jobs can be created for them. 

With more than 45 percent of India’s workers engaged in agriculture and another 40 percent in enterprises employing nine or fewer workers, high productivity jobs are scarce in the country. The reason is quite obvious -- we are yet to establish an efficient and technologically developed structure. The huge labour force does not find adequate employment and even those who find employment are without jobs for around six months a year. Whether it be agriculture or agro-based industries or even the informal sector, modernisation has not taken place yet. 

With little capital and land to work on, the marginal product of labour is too small to convince workers to work harder. Moreover, the situation is such that harder work does not reach the employee in most cases but are taken away by the employer in connivance with corrupt political leaders. All the talk of increasing working hours is limited to the top corporate sectors which have unfortunately got all the attention of the government and the country. In fact, all the capital has been invested in these few sectors, which employs around 8-9 percent of the total workforce.  

It is now necessary that a change be brought about in the informal sector of the country where pay structure, working hours, overtime allowance is fixed, and workers are not allowed to be exploited. Entrepreneurs like Murthy can talk about more working hours and can examine the labour put in by those who work in the informal sector and devise ways and means and then advise the government to conduct a comprehensive study towards reforming this sector and improving the working conditions of the workers.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

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